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Election 2016 – Day Three and the conclusion of the Count, we hope – Open Thread February 29, 2016

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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And so it continues. We should know by today!

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1. sonofstan - February 29, 2016

while ago, IEL predicted a sizeable seat bonus for FG as the largest party. We’ll, we’ve ended up with two largish parties and the bonus is savage: on under 50% between them, they have close to two thirds of the seats. The ‘left/ others’ vote can’t carry through.

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Dr. X - February 29, 2016

Hang on, how is 85/90 out of 158 close to “two thirds of the seats”? It may be over half, but it’s not that much over it.

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sonofstan - February 29, 2016

Sorry, over enthusiastic. Currently they’ve 90 out of 148 filled so a hair under 60%

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CL - February 29, 2016

FF+FG+Lab have implemented policy where:

“cuts to wages and services for Irish working people went directly to the banks that caused the crisis.”
http://thebaffler.com/blog/austerity-ireland-elections-jaffe

They have attacked the working class in the interests of finance capital.

These parties will have a commanding majority of over 60% of the seats in the new Dail; they will continue to serve the parasites and predators, resulting in the continuing immiseration of the working class.

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CL - February 29, 2016

However Fintan O’Toole says, “The result has been an enormous shift to the left.”with “an emerging social democratic majority” but this “will demand not just a realignment of the political party system but a reinvention of the State”.
http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-the-winner-of-election-2016-is-social-democracy-1.2552917

Wit the troika parties holding more than 60% of the Dail seats the ‘enormous shift to the left’ is not quite enough; the State has to be reinvented apparently before the triumphant social democracy can be implemented. Miceal Martin as revolutionary?

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CL - February 29, 2016

And this Norman grandee who writes for the Irish Times fails to see O’Toole’s social democratic triumph:

“the Left fared dismally”- says Vincent Browne.
http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/coalition-of-right-may-be-price-of-left-s-myopic-stunts-1.2552692

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2. lcox - February 29, 2016

We’re a long way off being able to put together a left government. Even if voting proportions translated directly into seats the L vote (ie excluding FF, FG, LP, GP, Renua and gene-pool independents) probably doesn’t reach 40%. Though a higher turnout might have seen it over that.

Guardian yesterday predicting reverse Tallaght strategy as suggested by WbS: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/28/fianna-fail-ceasefire-will-allow-kenny-to-continue-as-taoiseach If so this would allow more openings for movements than we have had in some time.

If LP is not in the next govt that would also thin out the layer of loyal NGO leaders who have shown their willingness to shill for the LP under almost any circs. FG are more likely to want to continue the civil service strategy of repealing all aspects of “partnership” in the community and voluntary sector.

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sonofstan - February 29, 2016

FF have formed govts on around 40% of the vote.
Not chasing the chimera of left unity, but still, there is the vote there.

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rockroots - February 29, 2016

That’s starting to take shape as the most predicted outcome. It means the two parties between them can be government and main opposition at the same time. The duration will depend on how long until the opinion polls indicate FF could overtake FG – maybe a year or so – and they find something to be outraged about and pull the plug. Unfortunately this is the worst possible outcome as it could be a route for them to rebuild that perception of them being the only two options available.

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irishelectionliterature - February 29, 2016

That seems to be the preferred choice of FF. Firstly it makes Kenny Taoiseach, and as long as Kenny is leader of Fine Gael FG are going nowhere.
Now the other thing and Robert Troy was got about this on the radio yesterday was how do you get your policies implemented if you are propping up rather than part of a government.

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3. Paddy Healy - February 29, 2016

Seamus Healy TD WUA, Right2Change relegates Labour Minister and Deputy Leader Alan Kelly into (last) 5th place by 1124 votes.
Full Report From Tipp http://wp.me/pKzXa-oG
Solid first count vote for Seamus Healy plus strong transfer from Right2Change allies Sinn Féin ensured the election of Seamus Healy
Kelly took the last seat without reaching the quota at the expense of Fine Gael Minister Tom Hayes. This was despite the complete collapse of the Labour vote in South Tipperary.

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4. Jolly Red Giant - February 29, 2016

Dublin Bay North is now a key battleground

The fallout from the numbers as I see them at the moment.

Power will be eliminated – her transfers will give LP a bounce taking them over SF and given Broughan a bounce taking him over PBP.

Lyons will be eliminated – his transfers will significantly benefit SF taking them back over LP. The big question is whether Lyons will transfer in sufficient numbers to both McGrath and Boughan to take both over LP and deprive them of their 7th seat.

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Joe - February 29, 2016

You’re a braver man than me to predict that one JRG. It’s one fascinating count.

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5. sonofstan - February 29, 2016

Pointed out on p.ie but nevertheless, seems accurate: FG vote held up well enough in Dublin – off the top of my head, two losses, bearing in mind the new constituencies – but big losses in rural areas. Two speed ‘recovery?’

I’ve barely been anywhere in Ireland outside Dublin over the past few years, so my picture is partial at best.

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Tomboktu - February 29, 2016

Three FG in Dublin I can think of: Derek Keating (famed for the filmed disappearance of a local newspaper that contained a letter from a school principal saying Keating had not secured the extension) and well as Shatter and Reilly.

And I suspect that geographical pattern reflects the size of the wealth belt in south Dublin, and that the two-speed recovery is very much in operation here too.

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ivorthorne - February 29, 2016

The question that comes to my mind is did Kenny believe his own crap or did FG think they could actually convince people that they were experiencing a recovery in spite of the absence of any real improvement in their conditions?

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sonofstan - February 29, 2016

Plus two though? Rock in DNW and the other one in DunLaoghaire

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Tomboktu - February 29, 2016

Yes, plus two.

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WorldbyStorm - February 29, 2016

“The question that comes to my mind is did Kenny believe his own crap or did FG think they could actually convince people that they were experiencing a recovery in spite of the absence of any real improvement in their conditions?”

Yes and yes. Unfortunately.

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6. gendjinn - February 29, 2016

The transfer patterns, toxicity and drop off from the recent by-elections are not apparent in the returns I’ve looked at so far.
SF came up close but short in Clare, Donegal for the 2nd, Galway West, Kildare North and Wexford (I thought 29 on the night but not it’s 24 or 23).
Every election they seem to come up short in near misses in seats to underperforming the polling. I had thought that given the straits the govt and FF were in that the Left and SF would be well. It could be that IND Left did better and got elected instead of transferring on to SF. Maybe, but need to look at all the returns.

* My interest in SF is purely psephological, I’d be voting AAA-PBP and/or SP depending on my options.

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7. CL - February 29, 2016

“Kenny’s government suffered massive losses in Friday’s vote, leaving an unprecedented grand alliance with traditional rival Fianna Fail as the only prospect for stable government…
Irish bonds returned about 92 percent since the last government took office in March 2011, the best performance in the world and more than twice the average for the euro region…
“Bonds may be lower on Monday,” Eoin Fahy, chief economist at Kleinwort Benson Investors in Dublin said. “But the main risk, that Sinn Fein could be in government has disappeared, so probably not significantly lower.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-29/irish-bonds-may-fall-as-election-produces-no-clear-winner

“Ireland may yet set the torch to a European conflagration that will not burn out until the last throne and the last capitalist bond and debenture will be shrivelled on the funeral pyre of the last war lord.”-James Connolly.
http://www.marxists.org/archive/connolly/1914/08/dtycrsis.htm

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8. FergusD - February 29, 2016

Or rather than setting fire to revolution Ireland kicks off the next financial crash:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/02/offshore-ireland-implicated-in-bank-collapse-once-again.html

which of course could lead to revolution – somewhere else!

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CL - February 29, 2016

“the shadow-banking system — including hedge funds, mutual funds and insurers — is more than 10 times the size of the Irish economy…
the very idea of penalising the culprits is viewed by the governing elite as unsporting or even unpatriotic.

And that’s the offshore attitude right there in those last two words. We like the money, it’s good for us — and we don’t give a damn who else gets hurt.” (link above)

Kenny and Martin will probably lie back and think of the bond markets.

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Gewerkschaftler - February 29, 2016

Very well spotted Fergal and fair play to Tax Justice Network – they won’t get of the tax evaders’ backs, even it the Irish meeja refuses to report it.

There is globally a massive bubble waiting to burst in the shadow banking sector and it’s no surprise that Irish based shadow banking is twelve times that of the Ireland’s GDP, given what we know about the relationship between successive governments and the financial cesspit that is the IFSC.

Not a cent of this private risk should be borne by the Irish public, as happened after 2008!

Make the gamblers bear all of the losses!

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CMK - February 29, 2016

Interesting point there about sparking off a revolution. Until very recently I was sceptical that a revolution would ever happen here. But ten or fifteen more years on the trajectory this country is already on and I think sudden, radical, change is on the cards. One of the inadvertent positives of Right wing anti communism was that the Right had to structurally accommodate the working class to keep the system stable. Churchill and Macmillan during the 50s and 60s in the UK were overseeing policies that Enda Kenny would regard as extreme Left nonsense. A farsighted Right winger in Ireland would be insistent on a council housing programme of 7-10,000 a year to close off any social unrest on that front. Instead the brainless gimps in FG and FF who have spent the week clapping themselves on the back are providing council houses that can be counted on your fingers, at a time that 130,000 are waiting for a council house. The Right doesn’t give a f**k anymore and their margin for error is narrowing by the year.

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9. Paddy Healy - February 29, 2016

Tipperary Constituency
The biggest shock was the failure of Fine Gael to get any seat in County Tipperary! This has never happened before in Irish History!
Full Report http://wp.me/pKzXa-oG
The large farmers of some of the best land in Ireland where the Blueshirts enjoyed strong support in the thirties failed to elect “one of their own”. Minister Tom Hayes was defeated by populist right-wing, “pro-life”, ex Fianna Fáil jester, Mattie McGrath!
What can be happening?

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10. Ivorthorne - February 29, 2016

Dear God!

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/longford-westmeath-james-bannon-laments-votes-crossing-county-lines-1.2549677

“Mr Bannon said one third, or more than 6,000 of Longford’s 18,000 votes went to candidates from Co Westmeath and that those people “will now have to examine their conscience and any respect for their county and their county going forward”.

“I am a Longford candidate and very few votes came back from Westmeath to Longford candidates, very few votes, I mean you could count them nearly on one hand. This could result in Longford having no TD.”

Co Westmeath-based Sinn Féin candidate Paul Hogan said he wanted to represent the both counties. “The fact that the larger parties distinguish between the two counties is a form of gerrymandering,” he claimed, adding, “they carve up constituencies to gain the maximum number of seats they can”.

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rockroots - February 29, 2016

The thing is, that still makes a difference in a big geographical area like an entire county. It absolutely shouldn’t, but it does. Longford town is the most deprived part of the Longford-Westmeath constituency, a shell of its former self. But the other thing is, having a government TD from Longford for the last five years has been no benefit at all, so he can’t have it both ways. It’s hopefully a sign that Longfordians are starting to look beyond the parish to find answers to our very real problems, rather than the clientelist reaction mentioned elsewhere .

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Ivorthorne - February 29, 2016

It’s the “conscience” stuff that outrages somewhat. This shit about putting on the “county jersey”, it is ridiculous. Yes, vote in a way that means your views and interests will be represented, but the idea that this is achieved by having a FF/FG TD in office is idiotic. Then to turn around and suggest that the voters have done something morally wrong by not voting for somebody from Longford, well it’s a little like the Clinton supporters talking about a special place in hell for women who don’t vote for Hillary.

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Aonrud ⚘ - March 1, 2016

How many constituencies with a county name have to contain a bit of the next county for the sake of numbers anyway, rather than matching the borders? E.g. Sligo-Leitrim has bits of Donegal in it – plus you have the complaints about Leitrim not having it’s own TD etc. Could we not just name them Constituency 1-40 and bypass that nonsense?

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Ivorthorne - March 1, 2016

And Cavan! Don’t forget Cavan,

Some people were rather peeved that somebody from Cavan who was voting in Sligo-Leitrim spoiled their vote by writing “I AM FROM CAVAN” on their ballot paper. I think it was a legitimate protest.

In fairness, SL is pretty ridiculous as a constituency. And like many large constituencies, it favors the existing parties as they are the ones who can organise all over a large geographical area. In the example of SL, Bree and AAAPBP only really had enough volunteers to focus on Sligo town and surrounds.

As for renaming them, well all fine and good, but you’d have to restructure local government and local service provision as well. Otherwise, you’d have scenarios where the TDs would game the system. If there are enough votes in say Sligo, Bundoran and Ballyshannon to meet a quota, TDs could drive funds towards infrastructure in these areas at the expense of far off areas in Leitrim and Cavan. If local government is also based around constituency 37 and they have some control over the provision of local services, that can be balanced.

Talk of a moral imperative to put on a county jersey is ridiculous but it is not ridiculous to be concerned that as part of a large geographical electoral area, local interests might be ignored because somewhere distant is more populated.

It’s 75km from Ballyconnell to Ballyshannon. It’s 85km from Ballyshannon to Boyle (the sligo border ends just beside it). It’s 93km from Ballyconnell to Tubbercurry. The parish and diocese structures are different (affecting education provision). The old Health Board structure was different. People have different hospitals. There are numerous VECs. There are different county councils involving other electoral areas. Roads are taken care of by different organisations.

You can dice up districts in urban areas a whole lot area based on population size.

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Tomboktu - March 1, 2016

At least we don’t get these

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11. sonofstan - February 29, 2016

I’m as fond of STV as anyone as a spectator sport and, like most Irish people, consider it the fairest. But then, apart from the outrageously unfair UK system, I’m not really familiar with anything else.

Stuff like the above though makes me think we get too much geographical voting and not enough national consideration. It’s hard to work out if the dependence on TDs to fix stuff is a consequence of the electoral system or whether the way we use the system is a consequence of the way TDs behave.

Anyone here have experience of list or hybrid systems? Would something like this produce better results? Say 40 single seat constituencies, more or less the size of the current ones still elected on STV (so like by-elections) and 80 seats distributed on a provincial list – 20 each for Dublin, Rest of Leinster, Munster and Connacht – Ulster.

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Ivorthorne - February 29, 2016

I think this election has shown – in a rather dramatic way – why geographical voting is not as silly as some would suggest it is. As a whole, the country and the economy is recovering.* But there are communities and large cross-county regions where there has been no improvement whatsoever.

The Irish voter finds themselves in a sort of prisoner’s dilemma. They can vote in the national interest, but if everybody else votes in the local interest, they lose. Given that in most of the country, the big two parties – with their emphasis on clientism – are the only real options and will as a result lead the country, many feel that they have to vote in the local interest since local interest candidates will dominate the Dail.

The hybrid system sounds interesting but gives the parties a lot of power. It also means that you’ll have Longford versus Wicklow candidates etc. I suspect the solution would have to involve giving greater power over local services to local government.

*For a given value of recovering.

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12. CL - March 1, 2016

“Any decision that I or my brother would ever take would first of all be in the interests of the people of Co Kerry and secondly in the interest of the country,” Mr Healy-Rae said.
http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/2016/0229/771552-healy-rae-calls-on-par/

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13. Jolly Red Giant - March 1, 2016

There has been an utterly disgraceful two day rant against Ruth Coopinger, Joe Higgins and the AAA by SF members (including Donnelly) and by Ogle and some of his R2C Warriors on social media (Ogle has just gone off on one again on his Facebook page in the couple of hours) – and it has included some vicious personal sexist and racist remarks against Ruth Coppinger and her partner.

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SMC - March 1, 2016

I went and read Brendan Ogles piece and could see nothing sexist or racist in it. Was it in the comments? Not very clear.
By the way while on topic did SP/AAA in Limerick have to remove sexist/misogynistic comments about Jan O Sullivan from their Facebook page on Sat/Sunday? Heard they did as heartbroken trots lashed out in anger at Jan for defeating them in election.

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Alibaba - March 1, 2016

Your sneering reference to ‘trots’ makes me question the validity of your comments. If there were ‘sexist/misogynistic comments’ about Jan O’Sullivan on AAA facebook page, that’s poor show. If they were removed promptly, well done to them.

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SMC - March 1, 2016

Smearing rather than sneering was my concern Alibaba. But I take your offence on board. Apologies. Loose talk about public figures and racism should be taken seriously and I thought there wasn’t a clear enough distinction between the rant and possible subsequent comments.
JRG is associated with Limerick city AAA/SPs and their trials and tribulations with Facebook in the last 12 months are a matter of public record. They have already had to publicly condemn “personalised” and “sexist” insults of O Sullivan last April. Of course over the summer, more trolling, insults etc led to the local AAA being brought “into disrepute” and they lost one of their three councillors as a result. They subsequently asked him to give up his seat which he refused to do.
I presume any comments regards the winning candidate were subsequently taken down over the weekend- a lesson learnt etc. However it raises that problem regards amount of responsibility one has for comments etc. I would also be slow to tarnish one’s opponents because of an apparent tardiness in deleting same.

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14. Jolly Red Giant - March 1, 2016

O Riordain 9947
McGrath 9533
Broughan 9477
Mitchell 9047

Lyons eliminated with 8476

I think O Riordain is in mega trouble here – I would be very surprised if all three didn’t pass him out – and I don’t think it will be even close.

The LP will be on 6 seats and stuck in the Technical Group with the ‘hard left’.

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thalmannbrigadier - March 1, 2016

Depending on Lyons transfers, Mitchell could just be behind A’OR.

Dissapointing that Lyons didn’t make it. Though the idea of Alan Kelly having to request (beg) speaking time from Paul Murphy is too delicious not to savor.

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Jolly Red Giant - March 1, 2016

I would expect SF to get 2000 – maybe more – the LP will get very little.

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WorldbyStorm - March 1, 2016

Well that wasn’t in the LP plan!

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Joe - March 1, 2016

Yep, I’d say O Riordain is a gonner there. We’ll see. But what about Penrose? FG have called a recount so their lad is in trouble but who is in for the last seat – Penrose of Lab or Hogan of SF?

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Aonrud ⚘ - March 1, 2016

Penrose of FG, maybe?

(And now I’ll stop picking on errors in RTÉs live blogs. To be fair, they’re probably pretty tired…)

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sonofstan - March 1, 2016

They’ve been generally good, to be fair, in fairness

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PaddyM - March 1, 2016

If it’s Burke vs Hogan vs Penrose for the last two seats, then Burke and Penrose would be favoured (Burke is certain either way).

If it’s Burke vs Hogan vs Bannon, then Hogan may be slightly favoured for the last seat.

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15. Jolly Red Giant - March 1, 2016

In Limerick SF got 5X more from the AAA than LP – and there is more competition for the LP in DBN

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16. ringacoltig - March 1, 2016

I don’t know enough about what B. Ogle is supposed to have said about the AAA or what they are alleged to have said about him but the online publication of R2C mock ballot papers which effectively suggested that one should not vote beyond the R2C candidates and effectively boycott candidates with a proven record on opposing water charges was disgraceful. I’m far from being a fan of AAA but to suggest that one should stop dead after voting for R2C candidates (mostly SF) and give no transfers to people like AAA’s Mick Barry and the WP’s Ted Tynan (Cork NC) was outrageous from any organisation claiming to want to build a left alternative in this country. Fair enough these two parties did not sign up to R2C but to suggest that put them in the same category as FF, FG and Labour is ridiculous. At the same time the likes of DDI and some independents which pretty dubious track records on a range of issues got the nod from R2C.

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17. roddy - March 1, 2016

I think people on all sides should calm down and cooperate in the new dail to direct their fire at the establishment parties.

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Tomboktu - March 1, 2016

On which, see Michael Taft on Broadsheet today.

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