Questions after the election? March 16, 2016
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.trackback
Here’s a few!
How did the Independent Alliance, a construct built of political candy floss and one that has been extant for only a few months get as many seats as AAA-PBP?
What of I4C whose four TDs were returned, albeit in one instance by the skin of their teeth (and by the way are the sixth largest grouping in the Dáil and ahead of the SDs yet receive but a fraction of the attention, at least as an entity?).
How did the SDs contest so strongly in a number of constituencies despite their too being very new?
What of the GP who saw two TDs returned?
And Labour, whose demise was long trumpeted by some, how did they manage to get 7 TDs – desperately bad, but also still a cohesive block for the future?
What of Fianna Fáil who with the Green Party were meant to have been banished from Irish politics for good? Are the Progressive Democrats the only party in the last decade or so to have been permanently removed from the body politic?
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
The withdrawal of SD from talks with FG and FF is important
Without SF and the Anti-coalition -in-principle 9, FG can get only 79,
FF can get only 73
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SD weren’t really in talks to form a government the numbers just aren’t there.
I was looking at wikipedia that tots up the first preference vote https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_general_election,_2016 Ind All got 4.2% with 21 candidates, 14C 1.5% with 5 candidates, Renua got 2.2% with 26 candidates, SDs got 3% with 14 candidates, GP got 2.7% with 40 candidates. (anything above 2% gets them state funding, very useful for R, SD and GP) I see I4C listed as having defined speaking slots on Dail motions next week, maybe the media will start acknowledging them now, RTE published an article about Wallace and Daly and whether they were in discussions with the government without mentioning they are in a party of 4 TDs
) I have to work out exactly what speaking rights means from the standing orders. In terms of coverage (and polling), its about the number of candidates and I4C don’t want coverage as a group even at their press conference about Shannon Wallace and Daly didn’t mention they are members of the same party but still the media won’t check and report this simply fact. Both Ind All and and AAA-PBP returned 4 with 2 new TDs, Shane Ross said he got the results of locals and picked poll toppers to join Ind All, surprised he didn’t get more TDs then
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If I4C had run more candidates or got some other independents to adopt the banner, which probably wouldn’t have been too hard, they would have breached the 2% limit and received party funding. Same applies to the Independent Alliance if it had registered as a party for the purposes of the election.
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Just on that timble. Talking to someone today they suggested that on Tuesday when the Dáil returns the various registered parties will be given speaking time in order of size. So, I4C gets speaking time, SD’s, GP, AAA-PBP, etc. But… not the unregistered Independent Alliance. They have to take time from the overall ‘independents’.
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The issue is not whether SD were in Talks. What is important is that they have now ruled out going into government with FF or FG
This Means that without the “no coalition 9” and SF , FF can only get to 73 seats.
Fine Gael can only get to 79
Incidentally, SF is unlikely to make any decisive move until after the Assembly Election
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nobody ever really rules out going into government
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The fact is that what the Socialist Left does will not influence at all whether or not a Government is formed. It had a fairly good election; if its endemic splintering could have been stemmed it would have had a much better one. As it was, even the AAA-PBP alliance candidates in DNB avoided acknowledging their coalition by asking for second prefs for each other. (the electorate, including yours truly, showed more sense). As far as the two participants are concerned, I cannot see how anything prevents them fusing completely, bar the organisational rivalry of the two international movements to which they belong. By the same token, it seems to me that little enough separates them from I4C or WUAG. A common programme would seem possible. However, this should not just be for votes to or in Leinster House, but for popular mobilisations outside and against that assembly, as in a continued Water Charges campaign.
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To be fair, I believe Michael O’Brien’s leaflets called pretty clearly for a 2nd pref for John Lyons. https://cedarlounge.wordpress.com/2016/02/22/unrequited-love/
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I can only go on the literature I received. Both Lyons and O’Brien had each others’ logos along with theirs, and O’Brien mentioned the electoral alliance with PBP in his text. However, neither mentioned his partner, as if each of them were the sole standard bearer, and No.Twos could go anywhere.
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I elcome Rayner Lysaghts contribution
Any realignment on the left will have to be based on opposition to coalition with FF or Fg or Labour not alone in principle but in practice.
Rayner is right to stress that the key task of such a realignment is not for parliamentary purposes or even for electoral purposes but to lead mass mobilisations
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An exasperated initiative from Brendan Ogle and the R2W unions here: https://www.facebook.com/Right2WaterIreland/posts/1763543587208047 .
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Odd line there: “When 100,000 people gather at a Right2Water event they are looking for abolition of water charges, they are not looking for a competition between political forces about tactics …”
People may not be looking for discussion on tactics, but it would be ludicrous to suggest discussion of tactics in such a campaign is unimportant or unhelpful.
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The deluded rankings of someone whose ego cannot reconcile itself to his actual political influence. Someone in Ogle’s position could play a real positive role in progressing a common Left platform and movement acting as a high profile, neutral, figure. That would require patience, political nous, tact, diplomacy, respect for differing perspectives, comradely interaction…………..
Alas, we’re stuck with Ogle who seems intent on adding PBP and SF to his hit list along with the AAA. It’s a tragedy of the Irish working class that at this juncture characters like this have the influence that they have and are allowed do immense damage. The sheer effrontery and presumptiousness of the man is breathtaking at times. On ‘Clare Byrne’ the other night he as good as said that R2W was the start of resistance to austerity, conveniently forgetting the campaign’s wages from 2011-2013 against the household and water taxes. He deliberately is cultivating some really ugly forces – one of whose major figures was today talking of the need to ‘crush’ the parties of the Left, if they don’t do what Ogle dictates – and these forces will be put to good use if things get more complicated in the coming years.
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don’t half tell us
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100% agreed. Some years ago (the ILDA days) I saw Ogle as a positive – and tbf there was little organised struggle in Ireland at the time. Nowadays I find his contributions egocentric and his behaviour pretty narcissistic.
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Links seems to be dead, did he take it down? So is he denouncing SF now?
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I can’t get it either, but not on fb so don’t know how to track it down beyond that.
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He seems to be veering that direction. He was disappointed with SF’s idea of an independent commission to consider how best to proceed. He hasn’t gone into full SF bashing mode just yet, mindful, perhaps while he has burnt his bridges with the AAA and is dousing his bridges with the PBS in petrol, if he burns his bridges with SF all he’ll have left are DDI and the Communist Party. He went bezerk when Kieran Allen made some rather mild criticism of R2C on one of election analysis programmes on RTE, but he hasn’t gone ballistic with them since. Needless to say his antipathy towards the AAA continues to burn brightly.
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I am more than dissappointed with the proposal for an “independent” comission on water charges! There is no such thing. In addition,Its terms of reference would be determined by FF and FG.
Is this a resiling from the abolition of water charges as a red line issue for participation in government????
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NEW MINORITY GOVERNMENT-this could limp on until after NI Assembly elections
Bare majority required for Majority Government 79
FG+Lab=57 + rural 5 +IA provincial 3=65
Paddy Healy
“Rural Independents Irish Times March 17
Over the past two days, Fine Gael negotiators have met a number of Independents including a group of five rural TDs and the three rural members of the Independent Alliance. (The “three rural members” are Michael Fitzmaurice, Sean Canney, Kevin Boxer Moran-PH)
Fine Gael ministers reported to the Taoiseach on the progress of the talks at a meeting in Government Buildings on Wednesday night. The full parliamentary party is likely to discuss the efforts to put together a government when the Dáil meets on Tuesday, but further negotiations are unlikely before next week. The Taoiseach has also met several of the independent TDs himself.
The loose grouping of rural Independents is made up of Noel Grealish, Denis Naughten, Mattie McGrath, Michael Collins and Michael Harty.
Sources on both sides say the talks have gone well and have been based on policy issues affecting rural Ireland rather than the constituency demands of individual TDs.
Fine Gael Ministers have also been in talks with other Independents including Katherine Zappone, Maureen O’Sullivan and Thomas Pringle.”–Irish Times
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don’t know what FG spin is doing on the front page of the Irish Times
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In the article Pat Leahy and Stephen Collins say that the story is based on information FROM BOTH SIDES-that is from FG and at least some independents.
Could these very senior journalists mention 5 names without consulting them?
The 5 names are also very politically plausible as partners for FG.
Will any or all of them deny it?
We will know tomorrow or sooner!
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those Independents aren’t above letting themselves be used
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Just on that loose grouping of indos round DN that is very real. I think they’ll work in concert.
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so what?
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As you said yourself: These 5 aren’t above letting themselves be used. You could add the 3 rural IA s. And there are a few more independents as well. There will be some that will surprise activists. SD and Labour say they will not be ingovernment.
There are “left” independents who have never said that they were against coalition with FG and/or FF. Some might surprise you!
Sinn Féin will be in a position to determine who will be in government after Ni Assembly elections
Fg +SF=73+rural 8=81 +surprises??????
I will be surprised if the 100+ conservative politicians can’t find a way to avoid an early election!
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Calm yourself dublinstreams no great point being made by me just noting that it is correct a loose grouping has evolved around Naughten who in my experience is a very astute guy and no fool.
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Willie Penrose has now ruled out Labour Party participating in Government
Note he didn’t rule out voting for Enda Kenny for Taoiseach (or abstaining on the issue)
This would make it impossible for the Dáil to sustain any stable government without Sinn Féin (except the Grand Coalition)
Wait until after the NI Assembly election!!!!!
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Two mor “others” Added to FG “Bag”
Ministry For Eamonn Ryan? He will be in a position to destroy the country and the Green Movement for a second time!
Is the only agenda a Ministry for Eamonn?
From Irish Times on Line
“Mr Kenny said the “conversation with Eamon Ryan was very good, very constructive and very straight forward”.
Fine Gael is believed to be making progress in efforts to convince Independents and small parties to back a minority government on the basis of an agreed programme and cabinet seats.
Senior Fine Gael figures now believe they can secure Dáil votes numbering in the 60s for Mr Kenny if the negotiations continue progressing well. While still well below a Dáil majority of 79, this would put Mr Kenny in a strong position to form a minority government with cabinet positions going to Independents and small party representatives”
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good god do you really believe the crap you write?
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Irish Independent-Same story almost word for word!
Irish Greens among the most right wing in the world
Both candidates were elected in the wealthiest irish constituencies!
“Speaking to reporters in Brussels today, he(Enda Kenny) waxed lyrical about the Greens following a meeting with the party’s two TDs on Wednesday and hinted that there might be a deal in the offing.
He said the meeting was “very good, very constructive and very straightforward” and called the Greens a “recognised, strong political party”.
“I had a very good meeting with Eamon Ryan and the new Deputy Martin,” Mr Kenny told reporters on his way into an EU summit in Brussels.
“Obviously we were talking about policy issues in so far as the Green Party is concerned,” he said. “And obviously, they are looking forward, I think, to seeing issues that are of importance to the Green Party.”
The party will make a decision by Monday on whether to back a Fine Gael-led government.”
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The Greens will be happy to back water charges.
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Another Independent for FG
I was not aware that Michael Lowry had already announced his intention to vote for Enda Kenny in future votes for Taoiseach last week
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Administrator;
I have no difficulty arguing with those who disagree with my views however strongly.
I have difficulty with those who reply to arguments with personal abuse.
“good god do you really believe the crap you write?”-Dublin Streams, comes into the category of personal abuse.
i would not dignify such a retort with a reply
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the stuff you write is an insult to us, FG SF government?
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I am delighted that Dublin streams is annoyed because it means that he will oppose SF going into coalition with FG or SF
The party that holds that it is not opposed in principle to being in government in Dublin with FF or FG is Sinn Féin! (Frank Flannery FG also said he could do business with Sinn Féin before GE 2011)
At its last Ard fheis Sinn Féin agreed it could enter coalition with FG or FF provided FF or FG were majority partners in government.
The leaders of Sinn Fein are competent and experienced people.
They know as I do that there is no difference between being in coalition with FF or FG as a minority or majority partner.
Both partners in a coalition government have a veto. Each can bring down the government at any time. Just because Labour “rolled over” to FG does not mean FG/FF would “roll over” to SF.
FG/FF are inveterate opponents of Irish Unity
Each wll veto any movement to Irish Unity.
FF/FG are capitalist parties committed to supporting Irish and international capitalism. They will veto any movement against the Irish-Super Rich or against international investors. Both FG and FF have capitulated to these already at the expense of the mass of the Irish peole. They will veto any proposal to do otherwise.
As an experienced person who is unconditionally republican and unconditionally socialist, I would be failing in my duty if I did not issue warnings against Sinn Fein going into government in Dublin with FF or FG as minority or majority partners.
I am mindful of the fact that the SF position prior to the recent Ard-Fheis was “If we can be in a joint administration with the DUP at Stormont, why cant we be in government with any party in Dublin”
I believe that it is vital for the campaign for Irish Unity, Independence, Sovereignty and Socialism that SF stay out of Coalition with FF or FG and that Sinn Féin continues to participate in mass campaigns against austerity
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I don’t oppose it I don’t believe it, I don’t think it worth writting that much on it
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Sorry-Mistake above
“At its last Ard fheis Sinn Féin agreed it could enter coalition with FG or FF provided FF or FG were majority partners in government.”
This of course should have read:
“At its last Ard fheis Sinn Féin agreed it could enter coalition with FG or FF provided FF or FG were MINORITY partners in government”
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Sinn Féin Proposes Independent Commission on WaterServices to be set up by Dáil Majority????
What on Earth is SF doing on water Charges? SF must clarify this urgently
It is clear from the responses by Eoin Ó Broin (SF) TD (on blog) that the “Commission” is to report back in NINE MONTHS TIME BEFORE THE ABOLITION OF WATER CHARGES!!!
The Commission is to be set up by the Dáil which means its composition and terms of reference would be determined by FF, FG and Labour!!!!
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“Sinn Féin wants to establish an independent commission to examine the best way to deliver water services…
Eoin Ó Broin told RTÉ’s This Week programme the party believed such a commission could examine the “best possible model of public ownership”.
“I would be very surprised if any body of experts came back saying Irish Water is the best possible model. I don’t think that scenario is likely but I think that if you set up an independent commission and you ask it to look at the best model of public ownership then I do think there is a responsibility to accept its recommendations when it does come back.”- O Broin.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sf-proposes-commission-on-irish-water-1.2571834
Let the ‘experts’ decide and take this controversial matter out of the political arena?
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Worryingly technocratic
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what are SF doing?, not winning the election, thats what they are doing.
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‘Fine Gael aims to win support of rural Independents in bid to form government’ says the Examiner
‘Fianna Fail leads fight to win rural TDs’ says Sunday Times
how about we ignore this crap and not buy into any of it
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No clarification of the Independent Oireachtas Commission on Water Services from Sinn Féin? Strange!
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“Sinn Féin cannot say who would sit on a commission it wants to set up to decide the fate of Irish Water….
The party has backed away from its pre-election promise to immediately set about abolishing the utility and now wants to set up a committee to assess how to maintain the water network.”
In Brussels yesterday, acting Taoiseach Enda Kenny said he didn’t want to get into “a row” about water….
“Clearly, the evidence is there of the economic models of what would be required were Irish Water to be abolished.”
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-fin-cant-say-who-would-sit-on-water-commission-34554422.html
Obfuscation from Sinn Fein. Gibberish from Enda Kenny.
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Has Sinn Féin backed off making Abolition Water Charges a Red Line Issue for participation in government?
Do we have to wait until after the NI Assembly elections for the answer?
“The party has backed away from its pre-election promise to immediately set about abolishing the utility and now wants to set up a committee to assess how to maintain the water network.If that group was to recommend the retention of Irish Water, then Sinn Féin would abide by that.”—Irish Independent March 19
Sinn Féin PLEASE CLARIFY!!!
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Welcome Initiative By Right2Water Unions and Community Pillar
Full Report http://wp.me/pKzXa-nC
Bill To abolish Water Charges to be proposed in Dáil
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Correction to Incorrect Comments on Social Media
Seamus Healy TD (Tipperary) fully supported the Sinn Fein call to put motion for abolition of water charges on the Dáil agenda for today, March 22, when Dail first met. We voted with SF and AAA-PBP against the Kenny proposal of the Order of Business which excluded it. Seamus Healy also voted for both Gerry Adams and Richard Boyd-Barret for Taoiseach as both were signatories of Right2Change principles
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Statements by Right2Water leaders that there are 100 TDs committed to abolishing Irish Water are incorrect and misleading
The 100 contains 43 FF TDs who are only committed to suspension of charges. http://wp.me/pKzXa-nC
It is highly likely that FF, Fg and Labour will either block the abolition motion from being debated or vote it down. It would therefore be a mistake not to remobilise the campaign on the streers
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Irish Health, Education, Housing Services Devastated as 7 billion in Annual Interest+Capital Repayments paid to European Banks under Unequal Fiscal Treaty
Speech By Seamus Healy TD on Report by Taoiseach from EU Council In Dáil
Full Speech: http://wp.me/pKzXa-tz
Underfunding of Health Services caused by New Colonialism within Europe
Total Surrender of Economic Sovereignty by successive Governments-For a European Debt Equalisation Conference
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Sinn Féin threats to hold a new election rather than abolish or suspend water charges is pure bluff.
If FG faced SF and the principled left seeking abolition and FF seeking suspension in a general election, FG would not prevail .
What would the Labour Party do?
From Irish Independent
“Water charges are staying and Irish Water is staying. That is not up for negotiation,” said one FG party source.
“The view in the parliamentary party is so robust on this from all sides and the party leadership know that. Middle Ireland is with us on this one.” http://wp.me/pKzXa-nC
The majority of Independent TDs who met with Fine Gael this week have not listed water charges on the agenda of items they want urgently addressed.
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-Sean Fleming, Fianna Fail spokesperson, when asked what he thought of Sinn Fein’s proposal, said that ” it is the most extraordinary statement I have heard in the last month from anybody. Pearse Doherty had a motion in the Dail during the past week to close down Irish Water. Now we have a newly elected Sinn Fein TD saying they are not doing that and that they want an independent commission. One is contradicting the other.” –
buncranatogether.com/home/2016/3/13/xydvu9207tob56diba5pezzo6ldgme
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Paddy,I don’t think SF are “threatening to hold another election ratherthan abolish or suspend water charges”.I think you are confusing SF with some other party.
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Of course I am
I meant Fine Gael of course
Sorry
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Gerry Adams said to-day That the SF proposed Commission on Water Services could not recommend continuation of water charges because “it would be outside its terms of reference”
Following the statement by Eoin O Broin, this is very worrying
Eoin o Broin ha said that while he could not envisage a committee of experts recommending a continuation of charges, the recommendations of an inepenent commission shoul be implemented.
Apparently he said later that he had used confusing words and that the commission woul follow the abolition of water charges!
But that is not what Gerry Adams said to-day.
According to SF the Commission is to “Report to government within 9 months”
Clearly the Commision is not to be set up by Sinn Fein
It is clearly an Oireachtas Commission.
This means that a Dáil majority will determine its membership and TERMS OF REFERENCE”
I am now even more worried about the SF position on water charges than I was after listening to Eoin O Broin
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you keep seem to forgetting SF lost the election and thus can’t detemine the terms of reference, the best the can hope for is to spread the control and depend on public support
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That is the whole point
Gerry Adams said that the terms of reference would exclude domestic water charges. Because Sinn Fein an the left did not win the election, they cannot determine the terms of reference.. Gerry Adams statement on RTE that the terms of reference would preclude the continuation of water charges is clearly beyond his powers.
Why is Sinn Féin proposing it?
The effect of the setting up of such a commission woul be to take the water charges off the streets and out of the political arena for 9 months.
Gerry Adams is a very intelligent person
I do not believe that his response to-day was just a political error!
I am increasingly worried about political developments after the NI Assembly elections
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water charges aren’t in the street they are in legislation
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Water charges will only be defeated by a mass boycott and a mass movement of opposition on the streets and in the communities.
I agree with Paddy – SF are manoeuvring for position on this – and they are not working alone – the so-called R2C ‘leaders’ have consistently opposed, first a boycott, and now any movement outside of the political arena. Their catchphrase is now ‘the community pillar has delivered and the union pillar has delivered and now the political pillar has to deliver’. They have attacked the proposal from the AAA for a mass protest to be held to force pressure on the political establishment to abolish the charges. This is a recipe to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Part of the reasoning behind SF pushing for this ‘independent’ commission is to try and take the issue of water charges off the agenda for a potential election that could happen in the next few months. They believe it would help to prevent the left outflanking them on the issue of water charges during a renewed election campaign.
This goes back to the sloganising by SF at the last election that water charges could only be abolished by a SF led government – something that is of course bullsh*t (in 1996 water charges were abolished despite the fact that only one TD in the Dail opposed the charges). The AAA and others on the left have repeatedly pointed out that it is a mistake to rely on using the political arena only in the battle against water charges. From the SF perspective they need to avoid been proven wrong on this because it would undermine their ‘left’ credentials and strengthen the position of those who advocate a boycott.
Ultimately this goes back to the narrow nationalist outlook of SF – of the approach of not empowering the working class but persuading them to sit on the sidelines and ‘trust’ the ‘movement’ – to only play an auxiliary role in the ‘struggle’. In contrast, the Marxist approach is to assist the working class in building a mass movement – a political, economic and social movement – to fight for the interests of working class people. This is why the nationalist and socialist perspectives cannot be married and why SF will not ultimately play a progressive role in any left movement.
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http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/sinn-fein-commission-on-irish-water-cannot-recommend-keeping-water-charges-728259.html
‘its own independent commission’, Sinn Fein’ own independent commission?
Commissions are set up by politicians when they do not want to take responsibility for a possible controversial decision. Sinn Fein wants to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds. Experts? what experts?
The water issue must be kept where it belongs: in the political arena.
Defeating the attempt to commodify water would be an important victory. Whose side is Sinn Fein on?
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Letter from Gerry Adams to I. Independent on Water Charges
Before reading the full letter, consider the following:
The policy re-iterated in the letter is that put forward by Sinn Féin in the General Election. Since then 101 FG+FF+Lab TDs out of 158 have been elected to the Dail. Several other deputies are also in favour of water charges. There are approximately 118 deputies opposed to the abolition of water charges and 40 in favour of abolition.—————————-
The fact that SF has and is proposing the abolition of water charges in Dail motions is praiseworthy and should be supported. There is no incompatability between that fact and the questions posed here in view of the large Dáil majority in favour of water charges
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Paddy,calm down.SF’s Brian Stanley is introducing a bill that would scrap water charges and abolish Irish water.Also your bet on a SF/FG lash up is a beaten docket!
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I am always calm
There is no incompatibility between SF rightly proposing Bills to abolish water charges in a Dáil having 100FG+FF+Lab TDs and what I am saying
BTW I hope you are right about my bet!
But I will wait until after the Assembly elections to see!
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Voting on Ruth Coppinger for Taoiseach Clarifies Political Geography of Dail Membership
Ruth Coppinger for Taoiseach Entitled to vote= 157
Ta 10= ULA(6)+ S Healy+CConnolly+T Broughan+T Pringle Nil 108 = FG 50+FF 43+ Labour 7+Ind 8
Abstentions 49= SF 23 +Gr 2+ SD 3+J Collins+CDaly+MWallace+18 Independents
8 Independents Voted Against Ruth Coppinger
Sean Canney+Ml Fitzmaurice +Noel Grealish+Healy-Rae(2)+Mattie McGrath+Denis Naughten+Shane Ross
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Alliance seeks to abolish water charges http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/alliance-seeks-to-abolish-water-charges-392017.html they won’t be able to actually get this heard (housing is the only thing on the agenda apart from reform and T vote), but they might awell try
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