More on that poll at the weekend

As noted at the weekend there was a poll for the Sunday Times – Behaviour and Attitudes conducted it and the result? 

FG: 26 (+1), FF:25 (-2), SF: 17 (+1), Independents 9 (+1),  INDEPENDENT ALLIANCE: 6 (-1), LP: 5 (NC), AAAPBP: 4 (NC), GP: 3 (-1), WP: 2, SD: 1, RENUA: 1.   (full details can be found here).

As also noted, there’s so little change that it is as if – despite the hiatus in forming a government, and the subsequent pains in pulling that administration together – little or nothing has happened since polling day. The only real upward tick (and it’s still within the MOE) is that of SF, and one would have to presume that the figures there are rather more realistic than some of the fanciful variations in its support in polls predating the election.

Indeed what we have is stasis in the political system. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are unable to break out or ahead of one another. No one else is able to do likewise. An election on these figures probably would return in or around the same number of TDs in largely similar cohorts to the current crew. No one is going to want an election any time soon.

And we’ve the Summer recess too. It’s difficult to see attitudes changing much across it either. There’s no big ticket items on the way – indeed notable how the government is kicking for touch on everything (what’s that, bin charges? They’re not going to touch that with a barge pole).

So where does this leave us? Talking to various interested parties from various political backgrounds across the last week or so the sense I had was – and I stress this is far from scientific, but impressions do count in politics – that there is a palpable sense of this administration bedding down for at least a year or two. Or as was put to me, if it could survive the first four weeks it could go quite some distance.

Where matters will get really interesting is if there is a challenge in FG, or alternatively if the polls show some significant volatility in relation to the FF (of FG) vote. Granted, there are events. Brexit will be no picnic, that’s for sure, and that’s only one of many external pressures that may come to bear on the government and the state. But short of those if we keep seeing polls like this, there’s going to be no appetite for change.

And here’s a thought, it’s not difficult to see this administration as being unloved but tolerated – for the moment – in a way its predecessor wasn’t. Certainly the rhetoric is very different. No Kelly, Howlin or FGers making too grand claims. One has the feeling that they’re keeping the heads down. Not that it’s doing them much good:

In reality, there has been no significant improvement in satisfaction with the Government since last month’s poll, with just over a quarter (26%) of the electorate happy with the way in which the country is being run. 63% are dissatisfied with the Government – a figure which rises to 7 in 10 of the blue collar working C2DE section of the population. Indeed, Fine Gael supporters are the only grouping which profess any level of satisfaction with the manner in which the Government is running the country, at 62% overall.

But no one is capitalising on this (bar SF which is 3% higher than at the election). That’s telling too.