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One in Four!! February 3, 2020

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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Irish Times Poll  

 

Sinn Féin 25 (+4)

Fianna Fáil 23 (-2)

Fine Gael 20 (-3)

Greens 8 (nc)

Labour 4 9-1)

Inds/others 20 (-2)

Comments»

1. WorldbyStorm - February 3, 2020

That’s… well… that’s incredible. I am delighted for good SF reps I know who are now likely to keep their seats, plus the prospect for gains for others. Welcome to the three party + smaller parties system.

BTW, why was no SF/GP/OTHERS option available in this survey linked to here?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fianna-fáil-labour-and-greens-the-most-popular-coalition-option-in-irish-times-poll-1.4160594

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EWI - February 4, 2020

A question that answers itself?

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2. Stan - February 3, 2020

Nominations will re-open in Tipp. Clearly SF need to run 5 candidates.

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Dermot M O Connor - February 4, 2020

FF running 3! I wonder if they’ll rethink that.

Also, woe to Alan Kelly.

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3. WorldbyStorm - February 3, 2020

Anyone have a rough seat outcome on these figures?

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irishelectionliterature - February 3, 2020

Impossible I;d say as SF are running way too few candidates and there will be SF surpluses everywhere and they wont be going to FF,FG or Labour.

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WorldbyStorm - February 3, 2020

yeah, that makes a lot of sense. So poss Inds/ some Ind left, poss SD, etc. This could be a very complex set of folk elected.

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Dermot M O Connor - February 4, 2020

But the counter to that (and this is the right kind of problem, but still a problem) will be the higher number of FG candidates eliminated – they’ve run ~82, so 40 or 50 on a bad day for them – will these counter the SF surpluses, or go to FF (ugh), stay in party, or the Greens / Renua / etc?

This GE will be nuts, planning on stocking up popcorn.

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4. Stan - February 3, 2020

DUBLIN

SF 24
FG 21
FF 16
Green 16
Lab 5

LEINSTER:
SF 31
FF 21
FG 21
Green 6
Lab 5

MUNSTER:
FF 25
SF 21
FG 18
Green 6
Lab 5

CONN/ULSTER:
FF 32
SF 23
FG 22
Green 3
Lab 1

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Aonrud ⚘ - February 3, 2020

Remarkable stuff.

Will those ‘others’ get a breakdown eventually? Can’t see it anywhere yet.

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Dermot M O Connor - February 4, 2020
Aonrud ⚘ - February 4, 2020

Thanks.

I suppose there’s not much to be read from it at that level – all down to the constituency. I’m still hoping for more SPBP holds…

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dermot - February 4, 2020

Absolutely. PBP/AAA were on 3.5% last time, that’s well within the MOE of all their current poll showings.. Advantage this time is SF surplus and a very weak FG/FF combine, I’d be mentally preparing for any scenario – when the transfers start flying, we’ll see.

An electorate willing to vote for SF should have a few hidden votes for the other protest parties, I’d have thought.

Saw Indo describe SD’s as ‘stagnating’ on 2%. Stupid irish journalists, they’ll never get it. Party could be on 1% or 5.5 given MOE, and in any case, it’s a matter of where the % is, rather than the size for the small groups.

Jesus, I’m ready for this election to be over already!

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5. stillradical - February 3, 2020

Incredible result, I’m not a SF supporter but it’s great to see, it would be great if they resisted the urge to work with FF/FG that said on those figures, they could get serious committments on their core issues. Pat Leahy as is his want on SF and the Left hoping that the trend for SF not to do as well as polls suggest continues.

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Fergal - February 3, 2020

Still a week to go… and who knows what will happen next! Delayed election in Tipp… unusual stuff afoot…
Will some of Shinner support peel off or will it actually solidify or indeed increase?
Hope they stay out of government with Ff/Fg…
Transfers could see a very radical Dail composition … left indos, real Greens, socdems, pbp, sol., fingers crossed… then hopefully sf bring all these disparate groups together and propose some kind of left unity govt…. fuck it, they could even include labour…give them minister without portfolio status at cabinet…
Of course, the purists on the left… will refuse to cooperate? Or maybe not…?

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6. Joe - February 3, 2020

Yis won’t be hearing much from me on here for a while. I’m packing my bags as we speak. What time’s the next flight to the DDR? Feckin autotext, I mean the DPRK.

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roddy - February 3, 2020

Learn “a nation once again” before you go Joe.The North Koreans love it and their choirs have it down to a tee.

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Joe - February 4, 2020

I know it already Roddy.
A nation once again
A nation once again
No bread, no butter, no tea, no sugar
But a nation once again

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CL - February 4, 2020

Or if you can’t remember the words try this one. Should be popular in N.Korea. Just change the names of the leaders.

F*** ’em all,
The long, and the short and the tall

F*** De Valera and Sean McEntee
Who gave us black bread
And a half ounce of tea
F*** ’em all

They rationed the cocoa an all
But they couldn’t ration the porter at all
F*** ’em all.
They brought starvation,
To our little nation,
So cheer up St.Vincent de Paul.

F*** ’em all, F*** em all
The long and the short and the tall

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7. CL - February 3, 2020

The combined percentage for FF +FG is now at 43.

The Sinn Fein trend is ever-upward and there’s still 4 days till polling day. The ‘green surge’ seems weak.

Post election, getting to the magic number of 80 will be difficult for the comprador, reactionary forces. There could be a heave against Martin from the grass roots.

Varadkar, bankrupt, is playing the ‘red scare’ card.

The people are rising up against a discredited establishment, and the powers that be are running scared.

“Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive,
But to be young was very heaven!—Oh! times,
In which the meagre, stale, forbidding ways
Of custom, law, and statute, took at once
The attraction of a country in romance!…

The budding rose above the rose full blown.
What temper at the prospect did not wake
To happiness unthought of? The inert
Were roused, and lively natures rapt away!- -Wordsworth

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8. Stan - February 3, 2020

Mattie McGrath going to court to see if he can postpone the whole election, not just Tipp. Which would give SF the chance to nominate more candidates….

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Dermot M O Connor - February 4, 2020

Apparently he got slaughtered on social media for it, not even an RIP for the deceased, and slouched off tail between legs.

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9. NFB - February 3, 2020

Between the Sinn Fein surge and the potential for their transfers to get in all kinds of unlikely hard left Inds/Sol-PBP/Soc Dems candidates over the line, who knows what the Dail will look like.

The question is will this translate in those constituencies where you would usually say SF are no-hopers. Take Kildare North as an example. Reada Cronin lost her local seat there only 8 months ago, eliminated on the first count, and now they’re going to put her in the Dail?

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WorldbyStorm - February 3, 2020

yeah, and that would mitigate against the low headline figure for SDs PBP, etc. I’m still cautious. But.. hey, looks like SF is going to hold what it has, and for that I’m glad, not least for Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire, Louise O’Reilly and Brian Stanley to just name a few who are all sound.

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Tomboktu - February 4, 2020

Here is a scenario that isn’t so hopeful.

Many FG voters have decided to loan their no. 1 vote to FF this time, and many FF voters have decided to loan their no. 1 vote to SF this time.

When the first count is over, SF surpluses will be distributed back to FF and when unsuccessful SF candidates are eliminated, their votes will also transfer back to FF.

(Obviously, the real world is more complex, but if enough are dining that, then it will give FF those extra seats.)

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Joe - February 4, 2020

Here’s another thought. The Greens seem to have peaked at 8-10%. Where did that vote come from? It’s a young and middle class vote. Middle class people who probably voted FG the last time. Middle class people who might be a little afraid of SF.
So will they spooked over the next few days into giving their votes back to FG or to FF, to ‘keep the Shinners out’?

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10. hybreasal - February 3, 2020

Anything like these numbers would make either a F or FG minority govt very dificult. The pressure would be to form a formal collation and they might still need others.
But would Leo lead FG into a coalition as junior partner? Or – more to the point – could he do so, while keeping them together?
Fascinating times

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11. sonofstan - February 4, 2020

Listening to Morning Ireland – the tone is one of national tragedy.

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12. roddy - February 4, 2020

Someone on PIE put it very well.Said mood on Morning Ireland “very sombre” that you would think “somebody had just shot the station’s dog “!

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sonofstan - February 4, 2020

I’m not in Ireland at the moment, but my thoughts are with you all at this difficult time.

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