Dublin Central at the next election September 18, 2020
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.trackback
Latest issue of the Phoenix has some good stuff in it, not least mention of the powerplays taking place within FF in Dublin Central – a constituency known to all too many of us here! It focuses on Mary FitzPatrick who has four times contested for that party and four times failed. But she’s been nominated to the Seanad, so perhaps things are looking a little rosier than they used to. Though what a shocking fall for a party in a constituency that had returned two FF TDs at the height of Bertie Ahern’s reign.
So what of the disposition of forces as the Phoenix sees it?
If the political chess board nationally and locally remains roughly as is, then Mary Lou McDonald will bring in a second Shinner (ousting the Social Democrats’ Gary Gannon) if an election is held any time soon. FG’s Paschal Donohoe and the Greens’ Neasa Hourigan would also very likely retain their seats.
And:
Fitzpatrick will require a Lazarus-like revival of her party to succeed, but at least she won’t have to contend with Bertie’s boys next time out.
Interesting that they see Gannon in a more exposed position than Hourigan (though she has been cleaving a leftwards path since arriving in the Dáil). At the election earlier this year he came in fifth on first preference votes, some way behind FitzPatrick. The GP vote jumped (though IIRC the constituency boundaries changed in the meantime) from 2.7% in 2016 to 12.3% in 2020. The SF vote was a massive 35%. Poor old FG coming in second were on 13.3%. And FF on 10.3%. The SDs were on 9.3%.
Still, I’d think it’ll be a while before an election. Much could change. Much could stay the same.
The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
“two FF TDs at the height of Bertie Ahern’s reign”.
When it was a 5-seater, FF held 3 for a while.
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Yeah a jewel in their crown. Amazing at this remove to see how the tide went out for them.
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Who will Mary Lou’s running mate be? It probably doesn’t matter, could be anyone and they’ll still get in on her surplus.
Poor old Mary Fitz. I thought she’d get in on the sympathy vote the last time but it’s clear the electorate in Dublin Central are an awful shower of heartless bastards.
In terms of government formation, I guess SF need to be taking some FF and FG seats rather than SD, Labour, Green, PbP ones. Since all those smaller parties are potential coalition partners in the alternative government.
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Fitzpatrick is a busted flush in DC. I can’t imagine such consistent failure to a get a seat would be tolerated elsewhere, and there must be someone else there for FF who wants a proper go.
Perhaps I’m way off, but I wouldn’t count Gannon out quite so quickly, especially the longer things go with this Dail. I could see some of those FF voters turning towards a more centre-left candidate than a SF #2.
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I’d agree. Easy enough to see the same four returned. Or not…
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Think that’s about right. Gannon could hold that seat. He’s clearly mopped up some of the previously Gregory Group vote. Think the GP could on a good day hold their seat too. FG almost guaranteed. SF guaranteed. So we arrive at the four incumbents.
And I wonder about two SF seats. Very, possible as IEL notes. But might be a fraction trickier than expected.
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I think Gannon would probably be ahead of Labour and get back in assisted by their transfers. Although assuming Labour run Marie Sherlock she may be a stronger candidate than many think.
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Sherlock has a good thread on the stats for socio-economic factors for Covid:
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Mary Fitzpatrick probably epitomizes the problems facing FF. In most constituencies there seems to be bitter rivalries within the party with the aim for their man or woman to get on the party ticket. A lot of energy is wasted on that ….. Problem is that being on the FF ticket for an election isn’t exactly a golden ticket anymore.
As for a prediction, Mary Lou will have to take in a running mate, FG will be OK and I’d imagine Gannon could hang on.
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It is a long way out. Very early for predictions. So I still wouldn’t rule out a big swing to the ‘revolutionary’ left and seats for SP, PbP and WP. Actually, I would.
One caveat on the FG seat – if Donohue gets a better offer in the meantime, maybe in the EU or somewhere, then all bets are off.
As for a prediction, Mary Lou will have to take in a running mate, FG will be OK and I’d imagine Hourigan will beat Gannon for the other seat.
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I’d be happy to see the back of Gannon. Strikes me as a horrible chancer!
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As far as I can see from over the water, the SDs are just Labour without the baggage. They seem to attract the same liberal NGO/Poverty industry types that Labour used to when in opposition. The same types who looked down their noses at the far left because they, of course, are interested in practical solutions unlike us day dreamers. And then when Labour went onto gov and thrashed all their practical promises, these types slink away in embarrassed silence. In another life, in another party, which I guess was sort of the SDs of the 1990s, I knew lots of these types.
I guess with Labour gone, there is a gap in the market for a social liberal party and for the moment the SDs are it.
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Some of the SDers I reckon are well intentioned do-gooder types as you reference above .
Totally different vibe off this fella!
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