Some more thoughts on the Dublin West byelection…

On foot of IELB’s post here I was thinking only the other day how low key the Dublin West byelection is. Hardly surprising, there are two – count them, two – referendums also lost in the backwash, or is it slipstream, of the Presidential election. And yet the Irish Times, which is arguing strongly that it will be a Labour gain, argues that if so it will be the first byelection won by a government party in 29 years.

If it is Labour, and their candidate is curiously positioned as in and out of the tent in terms of his relationship to government policy [apparently he was agains the FG/LP coalition deal which is either admirable or cynical depending upon the political position of those critiquing him], then they must be thanking their lucky stars that this contest is being held ahead of December 6th which is now set as Budget day.

It’s an odd one. We know that the electorate is in a mood that can for want of a better term be described as indecisive. Opinion shifts first one way, then another. And yet, for all that, offered an actual election to the Dáil the support seems, at least from the soundings I’m hearing back from those involved in campaigns on the ground, to make an LP victory likely. Whether if Labour does win the seat this will be seen as an echo of the support for the party in Dublin as expressed during the General Election, or simply a product of the ‘tough’ decisions having not yet been taken may be difficult to divine. But who would bet on the party doing quite so well in the wake of the Budget. So perhaps small surprise, or none, to hear Patrick Nulty running the above mentioned fairly vague and ambiguous campaign of running with the government and throwing shapes about opposition. Whether that works for him remains to be seen.

But speaking of that it was slightly entertaining to see SP candidate Ruth Coppinger described as ‘plausible, serious and likable’ in the Irish Times. Damning with faint praise? And the Phoenix sort of follows suit. Though with more damning.

Coppinger is very much in the same mould as her one time boyfriend. Like many SP members she is strong on rhetoric, weak on detail and very dogmatic.

And here comes the faint praise.

But even her opponents on Fingal County Council concede that she is very hardworking, principled and with her finger on the pulse. Another mark of respect is that the same sources sya she is ‘very negative… sour’ and ‘not very nice’, qualities that are almost de rigueur for SP comrades’.

Yes. Well. Be that as it may… but you might wonder what’s really eating the Phoenix. In a one page profile it tells us next to nothing about her biography, her background, her expertise, bar the above. And then… and then… it suggests that despite the constituency being hard to read ‘but Coppinger could cause an upset’!

Conflicted is the word that springs to mind.

That said it’s also important to recognise that local issues and structural aspects of constituency politics will shape individual contests. National dynamics have an huge impact, obviously, as was proven by the decimation of Fianna Fáil at the last election, but there’s also the need to have structures extant in constituencies. On paper Dublin West would look good for the SP, but not necessarily so in a byelection where only one candidate can win. All this is pretty obvious stuff, but it does have ramifications for the future development of the ULA and its individual constituents – and indeed for SF and others.

In other words the Budgets won’t be the be all and end all, even, if as gloomily but crucially noted by Michael Taft this government has already extended the period of official austerity by at least one more year – and by the way, what sort of impact does that have on the Government parties fortunes?

One of the strangest aspects of the last election was to see SF and ULA TDs elected where their chances were either regarded as middling or very low. Justin… Jonathan O’Brien. election in Cork is a perfect example. That was the point where I began to think SF would breach 8 or 10 TDs. And to a degree, though her chances were always better, Joan Collins victory in Dublin, and perhaps equally so Richard Boyd Barrett. That the latter will have the fight of his life on at the next election in a contest where, most likely if Sean Barret retains the Cean Comhairle’s position the constituency will only have three seats available points to how local factors will weigh heavily, even if there is a fair wind for the ULA.