Euronews EU Parliament poll – the centre holds?

This might be useful. Euronews has launched its European election coverage this week. As part of this it notes:

[it sees] the release of the first projection of seats within the European Parliament according to an exclusive Euronews-commissioned IPSOS poll, following a survey carried out in 18 European countries. The results will give a unique glimpse of voter intentions at the outset of the campaign, and reveal the issues exercising the electorate.

So, what does the poll suggest? 

Rising support for the far right and a collapse for Greens and Liberals won’t change the fundamental MEP arithmetic after June elections, the groundbreaking Euronews/Ipsos survey found.

 

Support for the far-right is likely to rise in the next European Parliament, but pro-European parties will still hold 63% of the seats, according to a poll carried out by Ipsos for Euronews, published today (19 March).

The exclusive survey – of nearly 26,000 people, in countries representing 96% of the EU population – is the first of its kind in the run-up to landmark elections due in June.

Striking the losses they predict for the Greens et al, and Renew Europe. Interesting how the Left actually increases (on this projection) and how the Identity and ECR crews also have a big increase, as do non-attached members.

Interesting to contemplate how that may play out on this island. But…

The predicted results won’t change the fundamental calculus of the European Parliament, where centrists will continue to muster the majority needed to confirm officials and pass legislation, the polling suggests.

Pro-EU groups continue to hold a majority. But problems lie ahead:

those numbers don’t tell the whole story, Fabian Zuleeg of the European Policy Centre told Euronews in an interview — as in practice parties and countries don’t always stay loyal in votes that are cobbled together on individual policy issues.

“It will become much more difficult to construct majorities in the parliament” if the centre is weakened, said Zuleeg, who is Chief Executive of the Brussels-based think tank – particularly on controversial issues.

Difficult not to think that rather like the situation in this state with our own coalition, were there a concerted effort to address practical issues perhaps there would be a greater tendency towards more positive outcomes? 

By the by Sinn Féin is predicated to be the ‘leading’ party in the elections for the EU. That presumably will  feed into the next batch of national elections subsequent to that.