After Gregory: Dublin Central and other matters…

The Irish Independent had an interesting (words you won’t read here every day), and broadly correct, article yesterday about the arrangements at the funeral of Tony Gregory under the somewhat incorrect heading ‘No seats for elite at my funeral, Gregory ordered’. Quite naturally he restricted the numbers of the great and the good and – as noted here previously – had the first six rows reserved for canvassers and active supporters. Only three others were given places, the President, the Taoiseach and the Lord Mayor. After that, however exalted, you took your chances on getting a seat in the body of the Church. That this appears unusual to the Independent perhaps tells us more than we might wish to know about the way this society is going. But, the article more broadly indicates that the by-election has started. It suggests that the date of the contest will be the same day as the local and European elections.

So, since normal politics resumes perhaps it is time to consider the by-election and the identity and disposition of the forces preparing to engage.

A long time ago I overheard Tony say to someone that one of the mistakes people and the media make about Dublin Central is to believe that because it has/had two national profile candidates that somehow made it ripe for candidates from outside the constituency to be elected. His point was that the national profile was largely coincidental and that it remained – despite the demographic changes across the decades – a very local constituency indeed. And there’s something to that.

Mary Lou McDonald fought a doughty campaign last time out and yet it didn’t catch fire. Patricia McKenna a less comprehensive one which seemed to fade out well before the end. I’m not suggesting that these were ‘celebrity’ candidates, but I am suggesting that not being from the constituency was problematic for them. I believe that this will be less of a problem for McDonald at the by-election and less again the next time out after that. Indeed my sense would be that if she is willing to think long-term she has a seat and most likely within the decade. That’s a tough one. Christy Burke tried again and again without success, not least because one T. Gregory happened to be in his way. But Gregory has gone and in the absence of a clear candidate from his sector of the political landscape there is all to play for.

Will there be a “Gregory candidate”? I have no idea. I’m not close enough to the circle where such a decision will be made. I suspect though that yes, there will. It makes sense, both political and personal. If there can be a vindication of Tony’s work it surely must be in the retention of an Independent left seat in Dublin Central. And that requires that a campaign is established and fought. Whether, in the absence of Tony’s most unlikely charisma, the fire that was in previous campaigns can be replicated is a most interesting question. But worth noting that fighting for someone after they have departed can be as energising as when they’re alive.

But the issue of celebrity is an interesting one in other ways. Quite some time back I heard rumours that Tony was willing to have Joe Higgins contest the seat at a byelection. I dismissed them, and still do. Joe is a formidable candidate, and yes, it was he who delivered the oration at the graveside, but contesting Dublin Central would be a tall order. Again it comes back to his links to the constituency. Tony was fortunate in that the Independent left gave him a certain degree of cover as regards his programme. Or to put it another way, people on the left or right or centre could easily enough give him a first preference because although plainly of the left sometimes Tony, by dint of not being a member of a party, appeared not to be in the left. And I remember once asking him how important it was for him that the Starry Plough was on his leaflets. Very, was his response, but he noted that relatively few people knew the meaning of it. A Joe Higgins cadidacy, even blessed by the Gregory organisation, would suffer from that party tag. At least, that’s my sense of it. Which isn’t to say that it wouldn’t be worth doing. Tony and Joe might have had their differences, but they were pretty close and there was no mistaking the real liking each had of the other. And to have Higgins back in the Dáil would be a prize, no mistaking.

A candidate from within the Gregory organisation would be more likely. There are obvious problems with this. Maureen O’Sullivan proved herself an excellent and measured public performer at the funeral, she was co-opted to Dublin City Council this last year, her profile is increasing. That may be enough, with some judicious work on the ground across the constituency (and as someone who lives in the same general area as her I can testify to her work on the ground already). But it may not. Her campaign to retain the local election seat is already in full swing and I think it’s reasonable to suggest that she will do so. But to ratchet that up to a by-election campaign will be more difficult. It’s not that there aren’t bodies aplenty to canvass – one thing that surprised me when I first encountered Tony’s election operation was just how massive it was with fleets of canvassers at any given time. But name recognition is the thing. None of this is insuperable. She’s already operating from a level many candidates would give their eye teeth for, but it does mean there’s a mountain to be climbed. Can it be done? I’d say on balance it would be very very difficult indeed.

The Irish Independent argues that:

Cllr Maureen O’Sullivan is likely to represent the fractured Gregory camp as it attempts to hold onto the seat.

“Fractured”? In what sense? I haven’t heard any hint that there are problems in it. It is possible that they are getting the wrong end of the stick as regards the divisions on the broader Independent left in the constituency over the past five years or so.

The position of other further left candidates, particularly independent ones, will be crucial. Two independent left candidates running and the seat is lost. It is as simple as that. But that’s the thing. Independence brings a degree of autonomy, and anyone can – often entirely reasonably – justify any actions as being worthwhile. Whether it might be better for people to play a long game, to establish favours given and set up circumstances where favours must be returned later down the line, is an interesting question. If it were me a public show of unity behind an agreed candidate with iron-clad guarantees that at some specified future date the mantle would pass and would be fully supported would make considerable sense. And that’s the sort of approach which a public show of solidarity and unity at the locals would be a sensible token of trust. Or to put it another way, the old WCA axis combined with the Gregory organisation could theoretically deliver two independent left councillors and either provide a strong base for a go at the Dáil seat in 2012 by an agreed candidate, or just barely win the seat this time with an agreed candidate. That might necessitate some serious compromises by those involved on both sides, and some pretty strategic thinking by people in those formations, in other words how best to retain an Independent left seat and then to establish it for the future. A two-stage process in my view, but others might disagree. I don’t know if that’s possible, but it makes political sense.

Much the same holds true for Labour. On paper it’s not beyond them to bring in a second seat in the constituency. This has been a long term strategy, probably more with an eye towards the departure of Ahern than to this specific set of circumstances. Emer Costello is in situ, and has been for years, has a certain profile and with a push could do the job. How well they wrap themselves in the Starry Plough, a somewhat ill fitting garb after years of the Red Rose of social democracy, will perhaps be pivotal. I would certainly rate their chances on paper as being better than those of the Gregory organisation. But only slightly and in part only due to their already having two councillors on the ground.

For Sinn Féin this is one to be thought through pragmatically. It’s hard to credit the Irish Independents idea that:

It appears the Government will hold the by-election for his seat on the same day as the European and local polls in order to wrong-foot MEP Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Fein.

Look at the first preferences that Sinn Féin got in 2007. Not fertile ground from which to mount a by-election bid. I simply don’t think they can take the seat in a by-election. Lack of transfers will hobble them. Competition for what votes there are will do likewise. But the flag must be flown.

And that leaves Fianna Fáil. They have a vast pool of votes from the Ahern years that they can call on. Their presence at the removal on Tuesday last was such as to leave no doubt that they would squeeze every last drop out of the Gregory legacy that they could in such a way as to make it seem they too were part of it – with no small assist from Ahern’s ‘best friend ever’ routine in the media over the past week or so. And despite the well-known detestation of Tony for that quarter their operation is formidable. Remember, the polls that have Fianna Fáil scraping the floor in Dublin don’t necessarily reflect the reality on the ground in this particular constituency. I would be very surprised if they aren’t in poll position from the start.

But look, it’s difficult at this remove to know how all this will pan out. The day before the last election I had no real feel for how the election would go. I thought Sinn Féin could take a seat, thought it was likely, not least due to their presence in various parts of the constituency. I was very concerned at how Ciaren Perry’s campaign might impact on Tony’s vote. I was even willing to concede that Fianna Fáil could take a third seat on a very good day for them. Look how that worked out. At best we can assess the balance of forces and hope to make some sort of a guess.

So, for my money, despite all the travails of Ahern and Fianna Fáil, this remains Fianna Fáil by-election to lose. Yes, there is a strong case that on a good the Labour Party could take the seat (not least, ironically, because of a growing but still relatively small Fine Gael vote eager to recapture what used to be a seat for them that in all likelihood will transfer to Labour for lack of another home to go to). And it is just possible that a Gregory candidate if positioned with the blessing of the various other smaller left formations in the constituency might just do it on the day. But I’m not hugely optimistic on that score. What is definite is that such a candidate would have to be agreed between the various groups, a solo run by any of them isn’t going to work.

And all that said, I guess I have to admit to looking forward to the interview with Tony to be published in the next edition of Hot Press. The Independent today noted that:

Mr Gregory, in an interview to be published posthumously this week, criticises the former Taoiseach with whom he shared a city constituency for more than a quarter of a century.

But there’ll be more…

Finally, as requested (and somewhat unusually) feel free to use this thread to discuss issues about Gandhi of North Strand. He’s willing to field them. Can I ask, once more, that people keep in mind that even with that willingness on his part it would be better for all of us if this is kept civil and within the laws of libel.

Any other prospective candidates of left parties are welcome to use this facility in the run-up to the local and European elections… don’t all put up your hands at once!