More on the polls from the weekend…

For any SF supporter the ‘meh’ which might have greeted Sunday’s RedC SBP poll can be neatly overturned by the ‘yeah’ on hearing the results of the Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll yesterday. For the figures were as follows:

When people were asked who they would vote for if a general election were held tomorrow, the figures for party support – when undecided voters are excluded – compared with the last Irish Times poll were: Fine Gael, 32 per cent (down one point); Labour, 10 per cent (down three); Fianna Fáil, 17 per cent (up three points); Sinn Féin, 24 per cent (up three points); Green Party, 2 per cent (no change); and Independents/ Others, 15 per cent (down two points).

And the core vote is as follows:

The core vote for the parties compared with the last Irish Times poll was: Fine Gael, 23 per cent (down two points); Labour, 8 per cent (down two points); Fianna Fáil, 12 per cent (up one point); Sinn Féin, 18 per cent (up three points); Green Party, 1 per cent (no change); Independents/Others, 12 per cent (down one point); and undecided voters, 26 per cent (up one point).

The funny thing is that there are some pretty serious divergences in the results of RedC and Ipsos/MRBI and they appear to be interlinked. Most notable is that as regards the LP, 15 per cent in Red C, 10 per cent in MRBI. And then look at the SF results. 19 per cent in RedC, 24 per cent in MRBI.

Because then look at the other results from RedC. FG at 30 per cent, FF on 18 per cent, Independents on 18 per cent. Again, let’s note that this is margin of error stuff. But both RedC and MRBI broadly speaking agree with only the FG vote being more than 1 per cent out of line with the other poll.

So what to make of it? Is it correct that there is significant churn in the SF/LP vote? If so that might explain why the LP made such a pointed (albeit illogical attack) last week in respect to its posters on the other party. Or is this a function of MRBI overstating the SF vote in some fashion? It’s almost impossible to tell. On balance I’d tend to using the RedC/SBP poll as the guide. Even if one allows for some margin of error it would appear to be a safer bet overall.

What’s interesting and entertaining are the reasons put forward by various commentators in each paper to support these widely varying poll results. Stephen Collins argues that it is ‘the oxygen of publicity’ that has ‘energised SF’ whereas a ‘lack of airtime’ has hobbled the LP. That’s an interesting argument, but one could suggest, only slightly facetiously that had the Government delayed bringing forward the referendum to a slightly more propitious time (although I’d suspect it will still be won by the YES side) then they’d have avoided gifting SF such ‘publicity’. But then again the SBP is surprisingly upbeat for SF. Perhaps that’s a function of the ‘dip’ being so small.

By contrast, Sinn Fйin sees its first bit of bad polling news in a long time, dropping by two points to 19 per cent. But party chiefs gathering for the ard fheis in Killarney this weekend are unlikely to be too concerned, as the longer-term trend for the party is clearly upward.

And notable is this, also from the SBP:

The party numbers today show the same general picture that we have seen emerging in the past six months. Fine Gael remains clearly well ahead of everyone else at around 30 per cent. All the other parties and the independents remain clustered in the teens, with the medium-term trends appearing to favour Sinn Fйin. The referendum may yet alter that picture.

Mind you, some interesting snippets in the analysis too from Collins. I don’t hold much store in the ABC polling stratification of voters, but that caveat aside consider the following:

The party has significantly improved its standing among the best-off AB voters since the last poll and is clearly proving attractive to the minority of No voters in that category.

It is difficult, if not indeed impossible, not to believe that SF has managed to modify its image generally in the last twelve or eighteen months and in such a way as to reap dividends in terms of public support. One could pin point this back to the Pearse Doherty by-election followed by the McGuinness Presidential campaign, but whatever events one chooses there’s little question that from a much more marginal position even as recently as two years ago SF has now moved to the forefront of Irish politics. Of course boosting their number of TDs (and gaining a further two Senators was no harm there – and on that latter thought I wonder if LP now think that was a deal worth doing to get support for their Senatorial candidates by supporting Doherty in the Seanad back in the dim and hazy days of 2007/08) didn’t hurt matters at all. But it’s fascinating to read that:

As in previous polls Sinn Féin is far more attractive to men than women. The big jump in the satisfaction rating of party leader Gerry Adams is another plus for Sinn Féin.

Gerry Adams… satisfaction rating? Step back ten years. Step back twenty. Step back thirty. Those statements, that SF poll rating, would be inconceivable. And note that Collins says that SF is well ahead of the LP in Dublin.

For the LP the 10 per cent rating is grim not so much because it may be accurate this time out but because it suggests that there’s a considerable way for them to fall further. That could be their base. Or it could be lower. Consider that the referendum over the Treaty isn’t the worst possible context for them to be campaigning in. Not that it’s peachy, but that it provides a platform and they can appear assertive (as well as the not inconsiderable element that they – for the most part think that they’re correct in their analysis, or at least want us to think that). But consider the aftermath of a Budget, or the raft of issues that have been parked to get the referendum out of the way. The polling numbers subsequent to those events would almost of necessity be much worse. This poll result demonstrates how much worse they might go. And even if one accords the RedC figure some validity the platform that engendered it is going to be removed in precisely four days.

The thought also strikes that whatever the polls are reflecting this is a terrible result, whether 15 per cent or 10 per cent, for a party which has many more than double the number of SF TDs. There seems little question but that the LP is punching well below its weight. Can that be fixed?

What’s also fascinating is that FF holds its own. I’d have put some money on the fall out from Mahon seeing that parties vote diminish yet further. But no. Not a bit of it. It still remains in the 17/18 per cent range. Granted, as I think IELB has pointed out, if an FF voter was going to stick with the party this long then why would Mahon change their minds. But still, they face enormous problems.

There is also good news in the poll for Fianna Fáil which has finally reversed the downward trend in place since the election.
The party is weakest in Dublin where it doesn’t have a single TD and the major challenge facing it is to rebuild in the capital.
The Fianna Fáil vote has recovered significantly among farmers and in age terms it is strongest among the over-65s.

There can, as we know, be too much made of Dublin in Irish politics. But, that said, Dublin is an essential part of any party building project. Look at how SF’s gains at the last election were good, but Dublin, due in no small part to the competition on the left and from Independents, did not quite deliver as it might have. But at least that party has seats in Dublin and likely more again next time out. For FF the picture is decidedly problematic there. I’d have thought that there was a chance that it might pick up seats at the locals, but one dynamic that was apparent before the last election was the drift to Independent status of a large number of FF members who then contested and won seats at local level. A lot will depend on whether they dare to drift back. I’m dubious, but we’ll see. Either way without a strong showing in Dublin FF is in trouble, and there’s a further point here. SF looks well set to pick up many more seats again at the next election. If it can solidify its support in Dublin and gain and retain seats elsewhere it may well dominate FF (actually for more on this consider Adrian Kavanagh’s analysis where he argues that the two parties might be neck and neck on the RedC figures. That’s true, but if SF holds Dublin it may be in a better strategic position). So all told no room for comfort for FF.

Fine Gael remains more or less where it was in both polls. Kenny et al must be thankful that the decline that had become apparent in the last month hasn’t continued – too many sub-30 polls and he’ll be in trouble. But there is a surprising elasticity to the FG vote. There’s part of me that wonders if some of it is going home to FF. But who knows?

And the Independents are as the Independents were. That 18 per cent and no change in RedC is fascinating. Yet another milestone about to pass, in the form of the Referendum and still they retain their coherence (in terms of electoral support). And that 15 per cent in MRBI, though irritatingly the GP with no TDs is recorded separately on 2 per cent while the SP, PBP aren’t. Only one per cent in it so no real change there. It’s almost pointless to discuss the GP figure. Stephen Collins admits that they’ll have to have a strong showing at the next local elections to make any impact further down the line. But how?

What’s fascinating is how that Independent vote doesn’t appear subject to – well – any attrition so far. And their figures remain higher than they were at Election 2011. I’ve suggested before that it is highly unlikely that 19 or so will be returned, but… I’m beginning to wonder.

Let’s just briefly consider the ULA. Briefly – because it doesn’t figure at all in the Irish Times or SBP analyses. Nor could I find figures broken down to include the SP. Whatever about the variability in the figures for the LP and SF the sheer lack of the ULA points to problems further down the line. This isn’t to dismiss the hard work put into the referendum, or the other campaigns. And it is possible, very possible, that the latter is one reason the Independents are doing well more generally in the polls. I have little fear that SP TDs, in particular, are relatively (and of course all is relative in these matters) safe. But as a corporate entity, and indeed individually in their party components, the lack of a profile must be troubling and raise questions as to medium term outcomes. Even if only cosmetic, one has the sense that were the ULA constituent elements to make more effort promoting that as an entity the rewards further down the line would be potentially greater.

So, overall what to take away from this? The usual. We need another poll!