UK General Election Night Thread June 8th 2017 June 8, 2017
Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.trackback
Exit polls, projections, what have you, observations from the ground. All here. And starting now an hour before polls close…
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The Cedar Lounge Revolution 
We’ll be wise after the event. Some of us who have asserted wildly wrong predictions are going to have to eat our hats. Does anybody have a safe recipe for hat soup?
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Marinate it in plenty of red wine first helps, I find.
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Can I lace it with VSOP brandy and serve it Flambé, like plum pudding at Christmas?
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If you like a bit of carbon with your felt – give it a try.
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Tories loose majority according to exit poll!
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T 314
Lab 266
SNP 34
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Hung parliament according to exit poll
Con 314
Lab 268 (I think)
Fucking hell ….
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Please let it be!
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+1
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Hope may beaten experience in our case.
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Are you suggesting there’s no advantage at all in being old(er)?!
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Stipe me – they might have done it!
Incredible.
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Gains for Lab in Scotland.
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Wow
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Holy fuuuuuuu ~!!!!!!! This looks like being a FUN night.
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Better, fingers crossed, that we could have hoped for… a long way to go, but some light
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Lab 266 NSP 35 LD 14 PC 3 GRN 1
= 319, not counting the SDLP, and SF abstentions.
NOT impossible JC could be PM.
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Tricky but… the sweetest thing is if this is right how it will screw up the Tories!
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Time for the ABT Coalition (Anyone But the Tories).
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How about Con 314 + DUP 11 = 325? The [UK] Independent had an article some days ago suggesting that the DUP would be delighted to support Ms May. bjg
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you called it right BJG
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+1 benmadigan
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I had resigned myself to a night’s sleep….!
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Incredible exit poll….a long night yet though
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Snap!
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But exit poll in 2015 was 22 seats off…
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It would have to be very off to make a difference to the narrative that will flow out of this; and if it is accurate then I’m happy my pessimism proved unfounded.
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Me too – feels great to be ‘wrong on the internet.’!
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On a tangent our thoughts yesterday about what if the LP had been more united. What a lost opportunity. I don’t often personalise my politics but if the LP wins seats then Perkins and Toynbee amongst others will have to think long and hard about the damage they inflicted.
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Yesterday’s women. If Corbyn ‘wins’ this election it was Stormzy/ JME/ Novelist wot won it.
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🙂
BTW, did you see Caroline Lucas’s tweet… “to be clear, Greens will *never* support a Tory government”
Our GP could take a lesson from that.
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that supposes a capacity to learn in our GP
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There can be no argument with the sentiment nor the logic behind your statement – this may truely turn out to be a missed opportunity of a lifetime.
But, maybe the electorate and especially young people needed to see what the difference between a Blairite and a full blooded Labour member really is all about. The BLP manifesto brought the differences into the full light of day. A decent electoral result may act as a spur.
As you’ve pointed out before the road back to normality will be a long and hard fought struggle for democratic workers and peoples. Maybe today may act as a further sign post.
best
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I think you’re right and I think it will act as a spur.
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Whatever Momentum and Corbyn have played a blinder.
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+1
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Oh, Jeremy Corbynnnnnn…to the tune of Seven Nation Army
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Piers Morgan was predicting 400+ seats for the scum about half an hour ago 🙂
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Ha, makes it all the sweeter…
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Hey, hey- early days yet- Is Jez a water- walker after all…thrilled, fingers crossed
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UUP/DUP in coalition?
Even then, we have to say Corbyn has been excellent. This has been a big FU to the Blairites.
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Crossing fingers it’s not Tory & Unionist…
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Not so sure. Imagine a Con/DUP min.gov, teetering on for a few months, another GE in a year or so. Walking Dead.
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GW- sounds dreadfu but look at it this way- the DUPers have come out officially against a hard border on the island..
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“At a recent press conference Francis Elliott, the Times’ political editor, asked Jeremy Corbyn if he would take Sinn Fein’s MPs (there were four in the last parliament) to reconsider their opposition to sitting in the House of Commons in the event of Labour being a minority government.
Labour activists booed Elliott, and Emily Thornberry told him it was a “stupid” question.
It does not look so stupid now.”
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Well, well, well! Who’dda thunk it? Modesty forbids but I did predict Lab/SNP majority earlier today. Probably a bit too much to hope for but if the exit poll overestimates the tory vote as much as it underestimated it last time round, might still happen. And that would be consistent with my theory that middle class pensioners swung to Labour but were too shy to admit it to the exit pollsters.
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Kudos Miguel.
And may be the ‘phone your gran’ campaign worked.
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apparently the SNP exit poll nos. are based on some very close contests. So take that low SNP # with a pinch of salt.
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Anyone find the raw percentages
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And by the way, fair dues Miguel… hope it is there or thereabouts.
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Are they predicting all of those SNP seats to go to labour? That’s a bad night for the SNP.
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I wonder if they swung to the LP or if they just stayed at home. Even elderly Tories must yearn for a bit of inspiration every now and then, and they can’t have found any over the last few weeks.
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R4 keep quoting Gideon as this being ‘totally catastrophic’ for May. Not hiding his glee much
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Did you read this:
“It adds up for the conservatives … they’re the largest party clearly it adds up if they get the Irish votes and they can persuade anyone else to back them … if you add up the Labour votes and they will be the people that feel they’ve done well out of this nevertheless they’re well short even if the Lib Dems and SNP support them… so it’s a difficult situation.”
Gleeful indeed. BTW the ‘Irish’ eh? Hmmm… Wonder how the DUP would feel about that description.
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An extra 3m people were registered in the last 5 weeks – down to the efforts or Momentum.
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Paddypower has May @ 4/9 to be PM. JC @ 13/8. That’s too close to call – it’s going to be a looooonnnnnnggggggg night. But a fun one!!
Tory majority and No Overall Majority both @ 5/6.
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As I often say, Miguel, all of life is 5/6…..
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Paddypower having second thoughts. No Overall Majority @ 1/7; Tory Majority 5/1; Lab Majority 7/1.
PM odds: May 4/6; JC 6/5; And Boris @ 10/1!
BBC still talking about a possible tory majority? I’d back paddy; he knows this stuff.
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BBC now forecasting Tories to finish on 322 (a mere 4 seats short of a majority) – up from exit poll projection of 314.
Not consistent with Paddypower. I’m puzzled now???
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Tory gains in Scotland outweighing losses elsewhere?
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With the gains for SF & DUP in NI that means the Tories will stay in power; gains for anti-conservative & non-abstentionist parties would have forced a less secure minority situation.
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True.
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Broadly, yes, SNP feeling an anti-Indyref2 wave, looking like -15% across Scotland.
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Yes, interesting how that aligns with polls.
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There is massive tactical voting in Scotland as well I should have added. Lib Dems could be net losers in England but still wind up with more seats overall because of the anti-SNP wave.
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What’s the LDs upper limit would you say, by the way good that the odious Clegg is gone.
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12, maybe less??
Clegg gone just now.
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Better than they deserve. Good point on another issue elsewhere, Sun and Mail not looking quite as powerful this morning, changing times.
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Vince Cable back and Farron now looking ‘knife edge’ to quote the BBC.
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Oddly underpowered I always thought Farron was.
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Odds changing really fast now. Tory majority 5/2; Lab 18/1; No Overall Majority 2/7.
PM odds: May 4/11 Jeremy 15/8
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Expectations exceeded this evening 🙂 Michael White of the Guardian vindicated two years after he said Corbyn could well come to seem like the calm thoughtful guy ready to clean up the Tory mess.
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Bobo Johnson top of the betting to be next Tory leader.
You can bring that on!
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When will this be decided? Maybe we should be getting up early rather than staying up late.
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Great idea.
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I’m wondering that.
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In theory yes, but couldn’t bring myself up to bed now. First actual result from Newcastle shows 2% swing to Lab. Game on!
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UKIP derisory result in Newcastle.
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And BLP up 2k. Promising.
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Labour up 10%
Less than exit prediction
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It also looks like the UKIP vote is not swinging as far to the Cons as expected.
Fingers crossed.
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This is useful… https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/08/election-night-2017-when-are-the-results-what-time-general
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Wycombe at 3.30am 😦
The Tory had his headquarters bedecked with Union jacks today – and only today.
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Feeling quite happy right now in the knowledge that Teresa May is bricking it.
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It’s the little things that count.
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A couple of thoughts about the exit poll. The two results so far suggest it could be out. But they are consistent with YouGov’s projections, which also showed a hung parliament.
From the NS
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Yeah, and it’s very early in the game too.
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But the exit poll surveys 35,000 people. The swing is not going to be uniform nationwide. They’re not making national predictions based on a scattering of interviews. Presumably they have a significant sample from all but the safest seats?
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+1 and I see that john curtice says the LP is doing rather better than the poll.
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Labour looking at winning Kensington and Chelsea. That’s like Sinn Fein winning in Belfast East (OK, not quite)
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Suggestion that the tuition fees promise may have turned parents and grandparents and not just students – and in the event of tuition fees being abolished, those about to graduate with 50k of debt will feel a bit hard done by.
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Amazing and Tory ministers in real danger.
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Labour also looking good in Warwick – Students!!!!
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Are any universities in term still? Would students not have scattered to their home constituencies, or wherever they go during the summer?
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Some are, some aren’t. Some of our lot still have assessments today, others finished a week ago. Probably the same elsewhere
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I’m off to bed. See yis tomorrow.
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How can you slink off to the Land of Nod when it looks like the Tories are going to lose Battersea?
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And the chance of bidding farewell to Nick Clegg?
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If you had any rum on hand I could give you some recipes that would keep you bouncing until morning joe.
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It should be noted that tuition fees were introduced by Blair’s government in 1998.
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Douglas Alexander being a bit mealy-mouthed on the BBC right now, grudgingly admitting that Labour have done well; obviously pissed off that his wing of the party are now truly dead, the logic of their argument that you can’t do well with left policies haven’t been totally battered.
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have been…
Maybe joe would actually be better off with bed rather than my exhortations towards rum based joviality
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“Am hearing Tories now giving up on a majority as they see more of the London results”
From the Spectator …..
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Hah!
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Just surveying the situation at 2 wow did the Tories screw this one up.
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And wow did the LP play a blinder.
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Phil Davies, say no more, and the NS’s The exit poll has shown the “Conservatives losing their majority, and it is now very clear that it will be borne out. If it is wrong, it is slightly understating the number of Labour gains.”
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This is where it’s a great advantage to be on the West coast of the USA!!! This is great primetime viewing!
David Dimbleby is 78 years old, if he can do it, yiz all can!
How much redbull do you think he chugs between cutaways?
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Seems to be a trend of total collapse of ukip vote, but breaking more to Lab than expected. A positive of course but does it herald a hardening Lab position on Brexit?
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I don’t know. Both the leave voters I know well are solid labour in all othe respects. It was never a simple left/ right thing.
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Yep, and in fairness broadly speaking the LP position is sensible so it probably plays well to a broad range of views. One has to hope it will inflect the debate from here on out.
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The Elephant in the room is with Sinn Fein having gained Foyle from the SDLP in NI and may win another, the golden number for a majority could drop by 2 to 324. SF helping the Tories!
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Still as someone said that’s one line they won’t cross engaging with uk domestic politics. Interesting times ahead though.
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LORD BUCKET HEAD! Do you think the security people made him take off his bucket-helmet, to check for explosives?
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Wow. I called it so so wrong. Fatalism makes you blind, I should learn a little optimism from this.
By my count, the Tories need 310 now to be able to form a government, if the DUP get 11 and Sinn Fein 7. Does the Speaker subtract another one, like the Ceann Comhairle?
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So did I. But what can one do? The key thing has been to support the LP. Enough people have to make today a very bad day for the Tories.
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Vote Share (not final, but it’s 4.30am)
CON 43 LAB 40 LD 8 UKIP 2 GRN 2
Remember those pollsters?
BMG (tory lead 13) !!!
CON 46 LAB 33 LDEM 8 UKIP 5
ICM (tory lead 12)
CON 46(+1) LAB 34(nc) LDEM 7(-1) UKIP 5(nc)
ComRes (tory lead 10)
CON 44(-3) LAB 34(-1) LDEM 9(+1) UKIP 5(+1)
IPSOS/MORI (tory lead 8)
CON 44(-1) LAB 36(-4) LDEM 7(nc) UKIP 4(+2)
Panelbase (tory lead 8)
CON 44(nc) LAB 36(nc) LDEM 7(nc) UKIP 5(nc) GRN 2(-1)
Opinium (tory lead 7)
CON 43(nc) LAB 36(-1) LDEM 8(+2) UKIP 5(nc)
YouGov (tory lead 7)
CON 42 LAB 35 LDEM 10 UKIP 5 GRN 2
Kantar (tory lead 5)
CON 43(nc) LAB 38(+5) LDEM 7(-4) UKIP 4(nc)
Surveymonkey (tory lead 4)
CON 42(-2) LAB 38(nc) LDEM 6(nc) UKIP 4(nc)
Survation (tory lead 1) !!!
CON 41 LAB 40 LDEM 8 UKIP 2 GRN 2
*
Survation & Surveymonkey (and yougov before they chickened out and changed their methodology to follow the herd) were the closest.
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That’s amazing. They is genuinely amazing.
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Tory calls for May to go!
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Ah lads what a night . Comradely group hug ….get in JRG
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Snap- they threw everything bar the kitchen sink at Jez but he never backed down
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Or lowered his tone.
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Just woke up with a cup of tea.
Rubbed my eyes – it’s true!
Potential Tory government with the DUP as far as I can see.
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One with a tiny majority, (4 or 5 seats); given the usual spate of by-elections, that majority won’t last long. Another GE within a year, unless they can dragoon others (but there are no others, unless they want to offer the SNP indieref2 or somesuch).
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Yes – quite possible.
I don’t know where this leaves the Brexit process. Certainly the Brits have an even weaker negotiating position.
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Customs union may remain – but what about the ‘immigration’ border through the island?
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Tories need 12 seats to get government with the DUP. There are 12 ‘safe’ or ‘safer’ seats.
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For the Tories, I mean.
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But the Blairites are history. Compulsory reselection in the Labour Party may well go through. That in itself it great.
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I’m happy for the Tories and the DUP to own Brexit from this point on until the next election which may well come soon.
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But quite hard for the Tories to hold together over Brexit with that kind of majority.
Labour needs a well-thought-out position on Brexit in the event of another election.
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For those who remember that I was pondering if there was a point of voting in a Tory safe seat constituency, it came down to 300 votes (0.5%). Labour were up 11.5. Frankly, I suspect if LD and Green voters had thought there was a chance of that scenario happening, Labour could have pulled it off!
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That’s incredible. And room there to get it next time!
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Tories comfortably held Wycombe, but Labour vote up from 12 to 20k
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There’s a youth amd other vote there that must scare the Tories. Kensington still in play!
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Time for a bit of a song?
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Indeed yes
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The DUP website crashes as the British Google “Who are the DUP?”.
You have to laugh.
Also possibly cry.
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🙂 DDOSed by history.
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This is interesting:
Which suggests a ‘minimal Brexit’, plus possibly a second referendum would be a good line for Labour to take.
With yet another general election (possibly in spring next year) it’s important that they keep up the momentum (pun intended) among young people.
I was trying to work some of this out on the way to work and the whole thing is impossibly complicated and contingent.
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Some may have missed this:
Sums up the night, I think.
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Yep – the Tory press has lost face and lost soft power.
Another tribute to Corbyn and his activists.
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Excellent!
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That is very special
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Well the game plan nearly worked. A far better result could have been achieved but none the less the framework is in place for the BLP in the next election.
I was not far off. So I think the BLP are the overall winners.
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Kudos to you too Tawdy.
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I suppose Howlin and Burton will now claim to be Corbynistas. lol
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Slept like a baby :). Woke up to good news.
I think a May-led government is the best we could ask for right now. She’s useless, absolutely useless. The longer she hangs on the bigger the Labour landslide next time out.
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I’m not going to get in to a mud-slinging match with JRG but the person I would like to hear from now is that noted oracle that goes by the name of An Cathairleach 🙂 The ‘bearded buffoon done well, didn’t he’?
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Yeah, that would be useful. She or he will presumably pop up in a month or two with amnesia about all this.
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There is a notion that the wave of populism was defeated but that misses the guy who really won this in one sense was the the ultimate outsider in British politics.
One one side you have the dup and in the other side a man who had a close familiarity with the Republican movement and I say that warmly.
This is radical.
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The image of David Cameron in the commons, calling on Corbyn to go – in a tone that implied that all that socialism was nothing but a tired old sideshow, and that it was time to hand over to the grownups, that image has been floating around in my head all day.
Don’t know why….
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There was such a level of bile directed towards him personally and from some nominally on his own side. I’m trying to think of another recent example of same and I can’t.
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